Lifestyle and Hobbies Essay

Barbara is a busy mother, who focuses much of her energy and attention on her children and financing their education. When she doesn’t work, she takes care of home and her focuses on cleaning, cooking and shopping for food and clothes for her family. Barbara doesn’t have enough time to watch much television and â€Å"doesn’t pay attention† to the few moments of commercial advertising that she is exposed to. However, she often listens to radio while working in her alternation shop. She often switches the radio channels looking for the classic music, broadcasts or news depending on her mood. Moreover, Barbara is too busy to look for a product; therefore, the anti aging cream should be easily accessible through home delivery or retailers, which Barbara visits relatively often like supermarkets or pharmacies. Proposition for P n G The findings imply that the most effective method of advertising P&G’s product for this target segment is by the means of radio advertising. P&G should consider advertising its products through radio channels between broadcasts listened by the target segment. According to Research from 2008 made by Commercial Radio Australia, 95% of Australians listen to the radio weekly, which makes this medium one of the most effective and at the same time an inexpensive alternative of targeting the consumers. Therefore, to target segment represented by Barbara, P&G has to establish anti-aging cream which is simple, price compatible and accessible through supermarkets such as Coles or Woolworth. (Kotler & Armstrong, 2007) Purchasing behaviour Opinion of the interviewer (Barbara) Barbara uses the elimination-by-aspects decision rule while shopping. She tends to assign the importance rank and cut-off points to the evaluative criteria of the products she purchases. She chooses the products which are closest to her criteria rank. The key factor in Barbara’s purchase decision making is price. She doesn’t pay much attention to packaging or brand of the product. She often shops in Coles and Paddies Market. Proposition for P n G P&Q can increase the likelihood of the product being chosen by offering free samples, special price discounts and promotional packages. This method is called operant/instrumental conditioning and is particularly effective while introducing a new product to the market (Appendix 1). If Barbara tries the product under those conditions and she likes it, she is likely to continue purchasing it in the future (Davis, 270). The promotional package containing anti-aging cream, moisturising body lotion or shower cream can be a perfect â€Å"excuse† for Barbara to purchase the products that will benefit not only her, but, also her entire family. (Kotler & Armstrong, 2007) Likes and dislikes Opinion of the interviewer (Barbara) Barbara travels to and from her workplace six times a week. She dislikes waiting for the trains and buses. Proposition for P n G This finding cares an implication for P&G marketing team to consider placing billboards of their product on bus stops and train stations. More cost efficient option to that, would be repetitively advertising through MX free daily newspaper distributed on railway stations, tram and bus stops in Australia (Wikipedia, 2008). Because Barbara is strongly focused on wellbeing of her family, it would be sensible to use iconic rote method by advertising a range of products (moisturiser, shower cream etc. ) with an association to happiness and wellbeing of a whole family. (Murray, 2006) References Kotler , P & Armstrong, G 2007. Principles of Marketing. Prentice Hall; 12 edition. Murray , C 2006. The Marketing Gurus: Lessons from the Best Marketing Books of All Time. Portfolio Hardcover.

The Kashmir Earthquake of Oct.8.2005

October 8 Kashmir Earthquake: Impact on Geoenvironment and Structures in the Karnah and Uri Tehsils of Kashmir (India) A relief-come-earthquake investigation team of the Centre for Disaster Studies and Research, University of Jammu, Jammu (India) visited the Karnah Tehsil of Kupwara district for the purpose of distribution of relief goods provided by the University of Jammu and the Red Cross. Professor Amitabh Mattoo, Vice-Chancellor, University of Jammu, flagged off the team on 2nd November from Jammu.Professor Mattoo also accompanied the team upto Srinagar. The earthquake investigation team surveyed the area for collection of the first hand information on the geological aspects and impact of the October 8 earthquake in the Karnah and Uri Tehsils. The relief team surveyed the villages around Tangdhar area and accordingly the relief goods were distributed among 500 households in the villages of Tad, Nalchian, Sadana (Nastachhun), Drangyare, Tangdhar and Rangwar on 4-5 November 2005. Tangdhar-Tithwal valleyLandslides on the PAK Neelam Valley Road Besides distribution of the relief goods among the worst affected people in the area the team members interviewed a cross-section of populace in these villages to know about their future needs and problems they are likely to face. The team found that shelter is the main problem these people would be facing on the onset of winter in the area. The team also observed that the distribution of relief goods in the Karnah Tehsil was not according to the need of the people.Some areas received too much of the relief that people started choosing among the goods that were distributed among them while other areas (comparatively inaccessible areas) either did not receive the relief at all or if received it was inadequate. A Team Comprising of the following members Ghulam M. Bhat (Reader in Geology)*, Sandeep K. Pandita (Lecturer in Geology), Yudhbir Singh (Scholar – Landslides), Vinay Sharma (Scholar – Engineering Geol ogy), Sham Singh (Scholar – Sedimentology ) and Gulshan R Bhat (Scholar in Geography) visited the quake affected areas in Kashmir from Nov 2nd to 12th , 2005.The report is based on the investigations carried out by this team in Karnah and Uri Tehsils and was compiled in 3 rd week of November, 2005. *Post Graduate Department of Geology, University of Jammu, Jammu – 180 006 E-mail * [email  protected] com 1 There are 54 villages in the Karnah Tehsil and most of them are totally destroyed by the quake. Hundreds of people lost their lives, and thousands have been badly injured. About 50000 people have been rendered homeless by the quake in Karnah Tehsil alone.The area still trembles with aftershock tremors being felt every day. Most houses in the area have collapsed into heaps of rubble, and the remaining few that are left standing have developed severe cracks and can easily crumble due to aftershocks or under the weight of snow. Almost all people in the villages are now staying in tents and makeshift shelters made of tin sheets and wooden logs. They have lost almost all their personal possessions, stocks of food and domestic animals. Almost all shops and schools in the area have been destroyed.Roads and footpaths leading to the villages off the main highway have also been blocked by huge boulders and debris falls. Agricultural fields have developed deep cracks and the irrigation channels have been clogged. The earthquake investigation team visited Uri and villages beyond in the Baramulla district from 7-12 Noverber. The situation in this area is as stark as in Karnah. All the villages have been completely flattened, with almost every single building destroyed. More than 514 people have lost their lives in this area in the quake.Almost all families living there have been rendered homeless. Ruined Thamni village (Karnah) Flattened Ibkot village (Karnah) Although the government claims providing of relief to all the affected people, but there are nume rous complaints from the villagers about the distribution of relief by the government. For each person killed by the quake the kith and kin have received a sum of Rs. 50,000 only. The government also claims that it has supplied a single, one-month ration of 11 kg of rice, 700 gm of sugar per person and tea leaves, cooking- and kerosene oil.Although some villagers have received rice and sugar, but many others said that they have not received any relief from the Government. Almost every body in the area made a complaint that tea leaves, kerosene- and cooking oil have not reached the villages even after three weeks of the quake. People leveled allegations of large scale corruption in the distribution of the relief and accusations of local level officials misappropriating relief funds and material. The team was told of the politicisation of relief, with different political parties providing relief to their own supporters and vote-banks.Many people in these areas have lost foodgrains the y had stored for the winter and they need supply of grains and other food articles for at least four to five months. This part of Kashmir winesses severe winter and the temperature falls below minus 15 degrees Celsius and experiences snowfall of six feet and more. 2 The government has also announced a sum of Rs. 100,000 for each damaged house payable in two instalments (Rs. 40,000 and Rs. 60,000). However, this exgratia relief has not yet been given to each and every house owner.Even some of the damaged houses are yet to be registered, people claim. Those who have received this relief complaint that this amount is too little, and is not even enough to hire labour to remove the rubble and to purchase and transport material to build temporary shelters, let alone for reconstructing their homes. They want that the amount be substantially increased and also insist that it should be paid in one instalment. Receiving it in two instalments, as many of them argue, would mean that they might have to bribe the local officials twice, instead of once.The army has played commendable role in the relief work at some places, particularly immediately after the quake by transporting victims to hospitals, and providing relief material (food, shelter, etc. ) and medical assistance. Downslope tilting of the structures Tithwal Flattened Batpura Kandi (Karnah) The team noticed that relatively a few NGOs are involved in providing relief in the quake hit areas, particularly in Tangdhar and Uri. People in general complaint that these NGOs visit villages that are located on the main road, leaving out villages situated high up in the mountains.The team met many people who had trekked from remote villages to Tangdhar and other villages on the main road in the hope of getting some food or clothing from passing relief vehicles. The powerful and influential people get much more while the poor get inadequate relief and sometimes nothing. There are several instances of looting the relief trucks on their way to Tandhar and Tithwal. In several villages (near the main roads and main towns) large piles of clothes supplied by relief organisations have been thrown around. In some places people were using them to light bonfires to keep themselves warm.The relief organisations should send the materials of immediate use to the people, such as blankets, jackets, coats, socks and shoes, and kerocene oil. Most importantly, tin sheets are needed to build temporary shelters to tide over the severe winter that awaits them. Geological Investigation The Karnah Tehsils falls within the Kupwara district while the Uri Tehsil falls under the administrative control of the Baramulla district. The Tangdhar-Tithwal valley (Karnah) is drained by two main streams (the Batmaji River and the Qazinag River) which together confluence with the Neelam River (Kishanganga River) at Tithwal.On 3 either side of the Bathmaji and Qazi Nag Rivers are lofty mountain ranges which are cut into narrow gorges and de ep defiles. The terrain is rugged and remains snow covered during the winter months. The famous Sadana Pass, which lies at an elevation of 10417 feet above msl, cuts off the Karnah valley from the main Kashmir valley. The Tangdhar Tithwal valley hosts a population of about 50 thousand, which is mainly dependent on agriculture. A portion of the population works in public and private sectors within and outside the state. There are 54 villages, which are situated in the two subsidiary river valleys.Geologically the entire landmass of the Karnah Tehsil can be categorized in the three stratal categories including the older alluvium, older river terraces and the mountain and hill slopes. Agriculture is being practiced on the older alluvium and at places the settlements also exist on these deposits. Most of the settlements in the entire Karnah valley are confined either to the older river terraces or to the mountain and hill slopes. As a rule the mountain and hill slopes are vulnerable to landslips, landslides, debris flows and shooting stones, as is the case with the Karnah valley.Also the older terraces are highly vulnerable to debris flows and slips during flash floods and earthquakes. The Karnah valley is prone to flash floods as is evident from the recent records and the geological evidences in the area. Our investigation reveals that in the past the entire area has witnessed the earthquake comparable with the October 8 earthquake and even of more intensity. This fact has been confirmed by the local people who claim that their elders have revealed to them the furry of flash floods in the entire valley in the past that compelled them to shift their settlements to the mountain slopes.The furry of nature did not spare them even at the higher elevations when severe earthquake struck the region in the past killing most of the inhabitants settled on the mountain slopes. The skeletons of the buried human beings are sometimes brought out of the debris due to landslides and slips at a depth of about 20-m in both the Karnah and Uri areas. el am Ri ve r Ne 2150m 3100m 2250m Bathmaji River 1500 m Road Rupture 2000m 2100m Tract Fualt er River/stream Sinking Rupture zi N ag 1600m Locality R iv 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 km Ruptures developed on the mountain ridges in Karnah Area (G. M. Bhat et al. University of Jammu, 2005) Ka 4 Fig. 1: Tectonic map of the Tangdhar-Tithwal sector, Karnah The October 8, 2005 earthquake shook the entire Karnah Tehsil damaging almost 100% structures, killing about 270 human beings and thousands of animals. The earthquake has devastated the mountain cliffs, ridges, slopes and even the agricultural fields. The road network in the entire Karnah Tehsil traverses through the unstable zones. The only construction materials available in the area are rocks and timber. Almost all the residential and official buildings are multistoried and made up of rocks and timber.These structures are susceptible to collapse even at moderate earthquakes. It is because of the poor foundations and unstable ground conditions of the area that almost all the buildings within a radius of 60 km of the epicenter collapsed and within the radius of 100 km of the epicenter all the buildings were partially damaged. Liquefaction at Karalpura (Kupwara) Sand Blows at Simbal Camp, Jammu The Batmaji- and Qazinag Rivers are flowing along the fault lines in the Tangdhar-Tithwal area. The October 8 earthquake that occurred on the Main Boundary Thrust has activated these subsidiary fault lines in the area.The evidences are seen on either side of these fault lines along the mountain ridges whose expression is visible on the mountain slopes in the form of longitudinal cracks. These cracks are a few meters in aperture and a few meters deep on the mountain ridges. At places a vertical slip of about 1-m is seen in these mountain ridge cracks. We noticed these ridge cracks from Tithwal through Green Patch, Dhaken, Amrui, Tad, Sadana Pass, to Chokibal and from Tithwal through Tangdhar Bakhain, Rangwar and Karalpura to Nutnusa. The salient features of these fractures and the field notes taken on these displacements are briefly described here.Karalpura An earthquake of magnitude 4. 4 with its epicenter at lat 34. 59 0 N and long 73. 620 E on 3rd of November, 2005 at 0625 hours produced liquefaction in the village of Karalpura. On our return from Tangadhar on 7 th of November the process was on and the area of activity had spread over to about 4 square km in the vicinity. There are a number of other sites in this area where water was oozing out of the paddy fields and in the Dar Mohalla of the Karalpura town. On the 3rd of November the water gushed out at three spots in the Dar Mohalla and ejected black sand in large quantity which was thrown into the air upto 1. m. Liquefaction is a process that occurs when a loosely packed grain framework is suddenly broken down; the grains become temporarily suspended in the pore fluid, and settle throug h the fluid, displacing it upward, until grain-supported 5 structure is re-established. The lower threshold of shaking intensity of about MM VI can produce liquefaction in sensitive deposits. Liquefaction can be developed at earthquake magnitudes as low as about 5, but that a magnitude of about 5. 5 to 6 is the lower limit at which liquefaction effects become relatively common.At Karalpura the sand blow craters are 0. 7 m in diameter and have ejected black sand in large quantity. It is located at about 100-km aerial distance from the epicenter of the earthquake. The ejected sand suggests the alluvial fan deposits at depth. It is interesting to note that the Karalpura liquefaction initiated due to an earthquake of magnitude 4. 4 and after one months period from the main quake. The liquefaction associated with the October 8 earthquake and aftershocks offers an opportunity to develop relations to constrain the magnitude of the past earthquakes in the same tectonic setup.It is also the best reference to compare its dimensions with the palaeo-liquefaction and thereby to assess the recurrence interval for larger events for the same seismic source or an average interval for a region. The liquefaction process can help to identify the earthquake prone areas and contribute to the earthquake hazard assessment. 2700m 1800m Kamalkot Chakoti 1100m Kaman Urusa 1300m 1350m Chakra Isham 1400m 2000m Jabla Uri 1400m 1400m Salamabad Lagama 1400m Fault Line Locality Kamalkot Mt Ghundi 1600m Basgiran Sultan Dhakki m e lu Jh R iv er Road(NH) River/Stream Path Sinking Rupture 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 kmRuptures developed on the mountain ridges in Uri-Kaman Post sector (G. M. Bhat et al. , Geology Department, University of Jammu, 2005) Fig. 2: Tectonic map of the Uri-Kaman Post Sector, Kashmir 6 Loss of Agricultural fields (Patti Thamni) Karnah Building on the older alluvium (Karnah) Green Patch Green patch is the mountain ridge at an elevation of about 1900-m above msl. Below this ridge is situated the villages of Beari and Dringla on its western and eastern slopes respectively. These villages host about 100 households with a population of about 700. The entire settlement has been razed to the ground.The mountain slopes have been cracked both longitudinally and transversely. The cracks run parallel to each other for a few hundred of meters and are often cut across by subsidiary cracks. The aperture of the main cracks ranges from 1 m to 4 m and a visible depth of about 3-m. At the ridge of the Green Patch there exists a large crack which runs all along the ridge for about 1. 0 km till it coincides with the another crack developed in the adjoining mountain ridge cutting across the Green Patch ridge. On either slope of the Green Patch Mountain longitudinal and transverse cracks of different sizes have developed.The Longitudinal cracks run parallel to the main ridge crack. The vertical slip of the Green Patch ridge is about 1. 0 m with the crack aperture approaching 4 m. Cracks in Green Patch Mt. ridge Shattered rocks on the Green Patch Mt. ridge Dakhen The Dakhen Mountain is about 2000 m above msl and on its eastern side are situated the villages of Ibkot, Pati Dakhen, Pati Thamni and Bahadarkot and on its western side is situated the Green Patch. The mountain ridge is fissured all along the ridge for a few kilometers in the NNE-SSW direction. Main lithology of the mountain is 7 quartzites and phyllites.On either side of the ridge occur a number of parallel fractures on the slopes whose aperture ranges from 15 cm to a maximum of 1. 0 m. These fractures are deep and the visible depth is 1. 5 m. At the mountaintop the vertical slip of about 0. 75 m has taken place. There are about 90 households situated on both the sides of this mountain with a population of about 400. Almost all the houses are razed to the ground with heavy human casualty and tremendous loss to the livestock. The slopes are vulnerable to the landslips and debris flows, which can tri gger during rains and future earthquakes.Tithwal Mountain Ridge The Tithwal Mountain ridge is also fissured and has resulted in the rock falls, which has inundated the Tithwal town. The road section beyond Tithwal town has been scrapped out into the Neelam River. Tithwal village is almost 100% damaged. A few buildings are standing but are unsafe for living. Settlements in the foot of the mountain range are highly vulnerable to future landslips and shooting stones. Chhamkot-Sikh Bridge The villages between Chhamkot and Sikh Bridge include Pingla-Haridal and Chitarkot. At Pingla-Haridal is situated a hydroelectric power project of 2 MW capacity on the Qazinag River.This power project lies just below the confluence of the Batmaji River with the Qazinag River and has been severely damaged by the earthquake. The massive debris flow has occurred in this stretch of the valley and a large piece of agricultural land has got lost. Two human bodies are still buried under the huge debris fall d eposit near the powerhouse site in the Qazinag Riverbed. The paddy fields on either side of this stretch of the valley have developed parallel cracks running along the river course (NNW-SSE) whose aperture ranges from a few centimeters to 0. m. The visible depth of these cracks is about 2 m. A large fissure cuts across the National Highway at Chitarkot. The aperture of the fissure is 1. 0 m and its visible depth is almost 3 m. From Chitarkot towards Sikh Bridge a number of debris fall deposits have destroyed the National Highway. . Fissures in the Green Patch Mountain Building on the older river terrace 8 Kandi The Kandi village lies on either side of the highway and has been devastated by the earthquake. It hosts a population of about 1500 confined to about 350 households.On the hill side of this township emanates a spring on the mountain slope, which ejects black and creamy slurry at regular intervals. The water content of the springs in the area has also increased after the earth quake. Below the township of Kandi are situated the villages of Chanpura and Trebani which together hosts a population of about 200 in about 40 households. The earthquake has destroyed all the households and has ruptured the paddy fields. Liquefaction has occurred during the main earthquake at a number of places in the area.The mountain slope on the eastern side of these villages has been fissured at the ridge and at a number of places on its slope. The slip is about a meter at the ridge. At a number of places debris and rock falls have inundated the houses situated at the foot of the mountain and a few houses are totally buried under the debris. Opposite the Kandi Bala a tipper has been buried under the debris which has fallen from this mountain. Tangdhar Bakhain The Bakhain Ridge is also fissured which runs parallel to the Tangdhar nar in the vicinity of Tangdhar town.On either side of this ridge are situated number of villages and an army camp. The rocks of the mountain are mainl y quartzite and form its steep slopes on either side. The whole mountain has developed fissures of different sizes, which run parallel to the main ridge fissure. The main fissures are 3 m deep having an aperture of 1 m. The vertical displacement is about 0. 5 m. On either side of the mountain slope rock falls have taken place and scarps have developed. Boulders as big as a building have slipped down the mountain and hit the buildings situated at the foot of the mountain.There is high risk of falling of these hanging rock blocks and can be of serious consequences. Evidence of the past human settlements exists on this mountain. It is said that Dub Wali Mosque was situated on this mountaintop in the past. An earthquake of severe intensity destroyed the settlement. There are a few Okhalies scattered on the mountain slopes and its top, which have been carved out in huge rock blocks of quartzites. Besides, a number of earthen parts (broken) are scattered on the slopes and mountaintop, a f ew of them embedded in the topsoil of the mountain. Fissure at the Tangdhar BakhainOkhali found at the Bakhain Mt ridge 9 Sadana Pass (Nasta Chhun) On the left side of the Sadana Pass lies the snow-covered mountain known as Eagle top on which was situated an army post. On the day of earthquake rock fall occurred on this mountain resulting in the burial of the army post killing 12 jawans who are buried there for ever. On the ridge of this mountain fissures have developed which are in continuity with the fissures developed in the mountain ridges of the Karnah valley. On the National Highway 4 km before the Sadana Pass fissures have occurred on the mountain slopes which traverse the highway also.In the same direction and in its continuity lies the mountain at Rangwar, which has developed large fissures similar to those of the Karnah Valley Mountains. The Rangwar village has been totally devastated and a population of about 100 people has shifted from the village to the roadside (a walk of about 2 hours). In this locality parallel fissures have resulted in rock- and debris falls inundating the settlements and the agricultural fields. Below this location towards Kupwara the intensity of damage is progressively decreasing.However, it is not known whether fissures have developed in the mountain ridges and slopes of this belt or not. Evidences of rupture in the agricultural fields and around the settlement at Karalpura suggest that fissures may have also developed in the vicinity of these areas. We observed liquefaction at Armpura, Nutnusa, and Badarkal on its journey to Uri via Kupwara-Handwara-Baramulla road. The local residents said that on the earthquake day blue coloured water ejected out of these liquefaction craters and at a few places brownish water emanated.The craters have dried up since but the scars are still present in these areas. People also revealed that water in the springs in these areas has increased due to the earthquake. We were told by the local people in the entire Karnah valley about the abnormal animal behavior (dogs and jackals) one day before the earthquake struck the area. They say that at the mountain ridges and slopes flames were seen emanating at the places where ruptures have occurred. This was followed by the dust bursts into the air. The intensity was so severe that for the full day the visibility was very poor.It was not until the rains started on the evening of October 8 that settled the dust clearing the atmosphere. During our stay in the Karnah valley 3-4 aftershocks were felt daily whose intensity was enough to cause further damage to the hanging structures, walls and tilting of the trees. The area is still experiencing the aftershocks and none of them of magnitude above 6 (IMD). 10 Kaman Post bridge The inner walls intact in a mud mortar house (Karnah) On the way to Uri from Baramulla we observed fissures developed on the banks of the Jhelum River near Sheeri.The fissures are continuous along the riverbank s whose aperture varies from a few centimeters to more than meter. The visible depth of these fissures is more than 2 m. On the left bank of Jhelum River at this location there are cracks in the mountain slopes which can be traced upto Tangamerg and beyond. Jehlum River bank near Kichhama Buildings on the bed rock near Red Bridge, Uri The spring situated near the mountain foot at the village Kichhama has completely dried up immediately after the October 8 earthquake. The spring water was used to irrigate about three hundred kanals of paddy land in the area.The fissures are traceable from this locality through the villages of Malpura, Dangapura, Sultanpura Kandi, Dudhbug, Nilasar, Chunti Pathri, Babarishi upto Tangmarg. In this belt the intensity of damage to the buildings increases towards the mountain slopes and their foot belt. Most of the buildings are not safe for living in this belt. Uri to Kaman Post The National Highway 1A from Uri to Kaman Post, a stretch of 17. 2 km, is tot ally damaged by the earthquake. The highway stretches have been washed away completely at a number of places.Culverts, bridges and other infrastructures have been damaged. It was in this sector of the highway that 66 Beacon personnel, who were at work, got killed during the earthquake. A number of vehicles including those of Beacon and private 11 sector have got damaged on this highway. Landslips, debris- and rock falls and shooting stones have struck most of the road sections. Almost total stretch of the highway has developed cracks along and across its entire length from Uri to Kaman Post. The main bridges, which have been damaged, include those of Red Bridge, Twin Bridge and the Aman Sethu.The most damaged bridge is the Aman Sethu whose one abutment on the PAK side and one panel of 70 m in length has been completely destroyed. All the buildings from Uri onwards have been damaged and the intensity of damage is complete beyond the Uri town. The area hosts a population of about 115 thousands. On either side of the Jhelum River the mountain ridges and their slopes have been fissured. The fissures run parallel to the river axis. The most devastated ridges include those at Sultan Daki, Kamalkot on the rightbank of the Jhelum River.The left bank mountain ridges and slopes fissured occur at Kaman Post, between km 8-10 to Kaman Post, Salamabad and Uri. Damaged and blocked Uri-Kaman Post-Muzzaffarabad Road sections Sultan Dhaki and Kamalkot On the mountain ridge above the township of Sultan Daki a large fissure has occurred on the eastern slope due to the October 8 earthquake. Black and brownish coloured water emanated from a number of spots which gushed out into the air a few tens of feet on the day of earthquake, said one soldier posted at a near by army post.Earlier the quantity of water emanating from this spring was a few inches, which is now flowing in the form of a large stream capable to run a few mills. The quantity of black water emanated from this fissure can be judged from the fact that the colour of the Jhelum River water from this point downstream turned black for about 15 days. The rocks on the mountain slopes over which the stream is flowing have turned either black or brown, which can be seen from the distant location on the National Highway. A similar water ejection has taken place on the same mountain ridge at Kamalkot about 5 km downstream.Both the areas have suffered a great damage as far as the buildings, livestock and the human causalities are concerned. These two townships have become most vulnerable to future landslips, rock- and debris falls and shooting stones. The 12 fissures developed on these mountain ridges and slopes are 4 to 5 m in aperture, more than 6 m in visible depth and are continuous for a few kilometers. There are a number of transverse cracks, which have developed across the longitudinal fissures. There is visible movement along these cracks in the entire area, which has frightened the local populace in general.At many places in this belt the agricultural land has been washed away by the landslips and debris falls. It is in this area that skeletons of human beings get exposed from the old debris, which has accumulated over them for the last few centuries. Possibly a strong earthquake may have struck this area devastating the settlements on these mountain slopes which got buried under the falling debris at that time. Similar is the situation today that at a number of places in the entire sector many of human bodies are lying under the huge mass of debris, which fell on them during the recent earthquake.Sultan Dhaki Mt. rupture (Kamalkot) Upslope tilting of the structure at Kamalkot Kaman Post The abutment of the Kaman Post Bridge (Aman Sethu) has been completely damaged on the PAK side. It is completely grounded and one of the three panels on that side is also completely destroyed. The central two piers have developed cracks at the foundation level and are unsafe for future use. On the Indian side abutment being partially built on the bed rock has sustained the shock. However, the complete bridge should be reconstructed on the firm foundation preferably at a new location.The bridge is located over the Khaliane de Kas (dry nala) through which runs a subsidiary fault of the Jhelum Tear Fault. The older river terrace at the Kaman Post on the PAK side has fallen into the nala over which the bridge is erected. The whole highway stretch on the PAK side is also destroyed. National Highway at Km 8 to 10 At this location the highway is damaged and a portion of it has been washed away. There exist a number of longitudinal cracks on the highway, which run parallel to the fissures, which have developed on the mountain ridges and their slopes. The fissures are about 1 m in aperture and a few meters deep.There is a vertical slip of about 1-m along these cracks. These displacements have resulted in rock- and debris falls and shooting stones in this sector of the highway. Th e settlements on these mountain slopes have been completely destroyed. Water in the springs emanating on these slopes have increased due to the earthquake. However, slowly and steadily is now decreasing. We 13 observed cracks cutting across the main fissures on the mountain slopes along which vertical displacement has taken place. Red Bridge Both the abutments of the Red Bridge have developed cracks.One of the abutments has partially fallen. There are severe cracks developed on the road and fissures occur at the mountain slopes at this location. These fissures are in continuity with other fissures developed on the mountain ridges in the area. Cracks on the slope at Jula village, Uri Twin Bridge, Uri Twin Bridge The earthquake has also destroyed the Twin Bridge. Both of its abutments have been damaged and the cracks are developed on the road section. These cracks are also expression of the main fissures developed on the mountain ridges and their slopes in the area.Besides the main br idges on the highway sector from Uri to Kaman Post a number of culverts have been partially damaged. Mention may be made of these damaged bridges and culverts i. e. , Red Bridge, Twin Bridge, Kaman Post Bridge, Lagama culvert, Salamabad, Urusa, Bhim Post, etc. Structures The intensity distribution estimated and interpreted by the Pakistan Geological Survey is closely associated with the rupture zone (Hussain et al. , 2006). Within the rupture zone, the city of Muzaffarabad suffered great damage (IX-X on MMI scale), and the city of Balakot was almost totally destroyed (X on MMI scale).Outside the narrow (5-10 km) width of the rupture zone, the signs of damage appeared to be fairly minor. While damage has been reported in more distant locations such as Abbottabad (35 km from rupture zone), Islamabad (64 km), and Lahore (> 250 km distant), and has been attributed to local site effects or poor construction rather than direct intense shaking from the earthquake. Table 1: Locality-wise in tensity of earthquake affected areas in Jammu and Kashmir Locality Intensity Locality Intensity 14Simbal Camp (Jammu)* IX Trebani IX Chanpura IX Uri Tehsil Kamalkot X Tad IX Sultan Dhaki Village IX Chitarkot X Sultan Dhaki Hill X Chamkot X Urusa IX Pingla Haridal X Jabla IX Bahadarkot X Salamabad VIII Ibkot X Lagama VII Dakhan X Kichhama IX Gundi Saiyidan IX Nambla IX Gundi Gujaran IX Sadwanian IX Gundi Shath IX Isham IX Thamni X Dringla X Karnah Tehsil Rangwar IX Tithwal X Drangyare IX Beari X Nastachhun VII Green Patch IX Bagh Bella IX Kupwara and Handwara Nalchian IX Karalapura* IX Tangdhar VIII Natnus* IX Tangdhar Bakhain VIII Armpura* IX Kandi Bala X Badarkal* IX * Intensity measured on the basis of liquefaction only Table 2: Locality-wise building types and percentage of damages Simbal Camp (Jammu) Kamalkot Sultan Dhaki Village Urusa Jabla Salamabad Lagama Kichhama Rangwar Tangdhar Tangdhar Bakhain Kandi Bala Chanpura Tad Chitarkot Chamkot Pingla Haridal Bahadarkot Ibkot Dakha n Thamni Dringla Tithwal Beari A&B C&D B, C & D B, C & D C&D B&C B&C B C&D A, B, C&D B&C B&C B&C C&D B&C B&C B&C C&D C&D C&D D B, C&D B, C&D C&D 2-3% 90-95% 90-95% 60-70 % 60-70% 65-75% 40-50% 30-40% 80-90% 50-65% 60-80% 80-90% 80-90 % 100% 80-90 % 75-80 % 80-90 % 90-95% 100% 100 % 100 % 80-90% 100% 100% The damage by the earthquake in Karnah and Uri areas has been severe close to the epicenter in the range of 50 km and progressively decreasing away. The intensity of 15 damage at various localities in the surveyed areas on the revised MMI Scale (ABAG, 2003) is given in Table 1. The type of the houses and the percentage of damages are shown in Table 2. In both the areas of Uri and Karnah most of the villages are built either on the older river terraces or on the hill slopes. The constructed houses in these areas are mostly single or double storey un-reinforced earthen wall stone masonry buildings.Stone masonry buildings are more common in these villages. The stone masonry walls consi sted of irregularly placed undressed/dressed stones, rectangular and rounded, that were laid in cement sand and mud mortar. A significant number of casualties and injuries were associated with the total collapse of these structures. Unreinforced one or two storey brick masonry buildings with roofs constructed with wood and CGI tin sheets are also seen in these areas. These structures were also razed to the ground within the 10 km range of LOC. The area affected by major shaking lies within a radius of 50 km from the epicenter with the destructiveness of the shaking reducing quickly as one move away from the LOC.The intensity of the shaking has been severe in Karnah- and Uri Tehsils in the vicinity of LOC. In these areas a 1. 0 to 1. 5 m vertical slip component has caused the extreme damage to the structures. These structures mostly collapsed in place, rather than being thrown over or developing diagonal tension cracks. Our observations in Kashmir reveal that three types of ground co nditions prevail in the earthquake affected areas. We also observed four types of building structures including Masonry A, B, C, and D in these areas. The intensity of damage varied in the three types of ground conditions even for the same type of masonry structure (both vernacular and modern engineered structures).In case of concrete block construction, the problems include poor block strength, weak mortar and lack of seismic detailing. In whole of the Karnah area we noticed two buildings constructed following the building codes. These buildings have behaved different to the earthquake shaking due to the different ground conditions. In general fire-clay brick masonry wall buildings have performed better than the other types of wall construction. A number of buildings in the area are wooden frame structure filled block or brick wall with either cement or mud plaster finish. Either type of buildings has suffered damages different one another according to the ground conditions in the area.The Jammu and Kashmir State has been classified in the zone-IV with two patches placed in zone V in the seismotectonic map of India 2002. These estimates are based on scanty earthquake record of the area. The northwestern part of Himalaya has been neglected regarding the studies on earthquakes and crustal deformation as compared to other parts of India. A series of active thrusts and faults are running across the state. Seismic hazard is not given a great deal of attention in urban planning and policy decisions, and seismic design does not appear to be high priority in the state. There is no code enforcement in the region. The observations mentioned above should be kept in view while formulating building codes for these and other similarly situated areas in Jammu and Kashmir.We also suggest that micro-zonation of the major cities and towns are taken up at priority basis before the building codes are formulated for the state. Other Aspects 16 In addition to the geological invest igations we collected data on other aspects including village-wise death tool of human and livestock and loss of structures. The villages and towns surveyed include Tangdhar, Kandi, Ibkot, Dringla, Tithwal and Uri. The salient features of this study based on questionnaire filled up by the randomly selected 87 householders are given in Tables 3 to 6. Stone masonry building on the bed rock at Kandi Concrete Building on the older alluvium (Tribuni) Table 3: No. f Deaths in the households of the Surveyed villages Area Deaths Percent (%) Uri Sultan Dhaki 26 38. 80 Kamalkot 09 13. 45 Ibkot 07 10. 45 Kandi 08 11. 94 Panjtaran 15 22. 38 Tangdhar Beari 02 2. 98 Total 06 67 100. 0 Villages Table 4: Demographic Change in the Population of the Surveyed Area S. No 1 2 3 Sex & Age Male Child Female Child Male Adult Past Present Dead population population 141 121 20 (29. 85) 107 165 143 556 102 143 123 489 05 (7. 47) 22 (32. 83) 20 (29. 85) 67 4 Female Adult Total 17 Figure 1: Past & Pre sent Popu lation Status 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 M ale Fem ale Child Child Male Fe m ale Adult Adult Number pas t pop. res ent pop. Age & Sex Groups Table 5: Availability of amenities in the Surveyed Population Amenities Uri Available 25 05 00 00 00 Tangdhar Available 16 14 00 14 00 Electricity Water Education Ration Medical facility Not Available 00 20 05 20 00 Partially Available 00 00 20 05 25 Not Available 46 48 60 46 38 Partially Available 00 00 02 02 24 It can be viewed that about 31 percent of the households have got full-fledged Govt. /Social amenities and 69 percent of the households are partially benefited. The educational facility in both the areas has come to standstill. The list of village-wise deaths reported from Uri Tehsil is given in Table7.Table 6: Status of loss from the total households of the surveyed area Parameter Loss No loss Total Conclusions In the Karnah valley the mountain ranges on either side of the Batmaji and Qazinag Rivers have developed fissures at t heir ridges and their subsidiaries on their slopes. The fault line lies along these rivers, which has got activated by the recent Property ( % ) 85 (97. 7) 02 (2. 3) 87 (100. 0) Livestock ( % ) 22 (25. 28) 65 (74. 72) 87 (100. 0) 18 earthquake. This has resulted in a net vertical slip in the entire area, which has its expression in the development of fissures on the ridges of the mountains. The area is witnessing the aftershocks of intermediate magnitude daily whose frequency varies between 2 to 3. The expression of this fault line is traceable beyond the Karnah valley across the Sadana Pass in theKupwara Tehsil through Chokibal, Rangwar, Nutnusa, and beyond. The ongoing liquefaction process at and around Karalpura should be closely monitored because it involves more areas with the passage of time. This is also necessary because this location is the only one that has got involved in this process after the main earthquake of October 8. Its intensity increases with the increase in the magnitude of the earthquakes taking place in the region. Deaths in Different Age Groups 17% 40% 0–15 16–30 31–59 23% 20% 60+ Similarly the mountain ranges in the Uri-Kaman Post sector of the Uri Tehsil have developed fissures on the ridges with subsidiaries on their slope.These fissures are developed on either side of the Jhelum River. In this area the Jhelum Tear Fault runs all along the river axis and has got activated by the recent earthquake. Evidences suggest that the readjustment of the rocks is still in progress and results in earthquakes whose epicenter is located around this area. The USGS observatories have also recorded the seismic activity in its vicinity. This fault line needs to be closely monitored during the times to come. Of all the surveyed households 71. 3 percent have received relief material in terms of money and clothes, tents, blankets etc. but 28. 7 percent of the households are yet to receive the relief material from the government agen cies.From the total surveyed households more than half of the households i. e. 58. 6 percent want to migrate from their native areas, while as a total of 41. 4 percent want to hold back there. From the surveyed households it was observed that 62. 1 percent of the people are in a state of high mental stress and 37. 9 percent had been affected to a moderate extent. Of the total 41 injured people from the surveyed households 17 people were seriously injured while as 24 people were partially injured. The households also received a serious loss in terms of their livestock i. e. , a total of 22 households had their livestock completely perished. 19 Table 7: Village-wise death toll in the Uri Tehsil S. NO. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NAME OF VILLAGE KAMALKOTE BANDI SARAI CHAPPAR KUNDI BARAJALA SADARA SULTAN DHAKKI BASGRAN DACHI NAWA ARUNDA URDOSA CHAKRA ISHAM BATGRAN GOHALAN CHRUNDA TILWARI URI DEATHS 86 53 10 39 19 46 21 4 22 7 10 24 7 7 31 1 13 S. NO 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2 5 26 27 28 29 30 31 NAME OF VILLAGE URI MOHURA LIMBER BANDI BRAHMANA MACHI SUKHDHAR DARAGUTILAN DAWARAN DHANI SYDAN CHOOLAN ZAMORPATTAN THAJAL GINGAL GAWALTA NAMBLA TOTAL DEATHS 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 514 – – – Suggestions and Future Plan The Uri-II hydroelectric (HE) Project is under construction, which is a concrete straight gravity dam across the Jhelum River, at 1 km upstream of Dachhi Bridge near Salamabad village. During the recent earthquake the buildings of the project have been severely damaged and some damage has been caused to the dam structure as well.The project is a run of the river scheme with its weir near Dachhi village where from the water will be diverted through 540 m open channel followed by 4. 275 km long HRT to underground power house (PH) at Sadwanian village on the left bank of Jhelum River. The discharge from the PH will be diverted to the Jhelum River through a 3775-m TRT with its fallout in Gosalta nala near Urus a. The catchment area of Jhelum River up to dam site of Uri-II HE project is 13400 km2 comprising 12743 Km2 catchment area up to Uri-I head works and 657 km2 intermediate catchment area up to Uri-II dam site. The Design Flood (PMF) has been calculated as 4850 m3/sec. The Full Reservoir Level (FRL) is at 1241 m and the gross storage at FRL is 634. 31 ha m.The downstream areas vulnerable to inundation by dam break flood should be shown in the inundation map. The inundation map should be prepared with the help of water surface elevation profile, which has been computed for maximum flood elevation and discharges at various downstream locations. The detailed inundation map on 1:2,000-scale should be prepared and displayed at all the downstream flood prone locations depicting maximum water level that would be attained. The elevation also should be marked on the inundation maps depicting the topographic and geographical details of downstream areas. 20 Both the areas (Karnah and Uri) fall i n the transition zone between seismic zones IV and V.From north to south three main thrusts occur in the region. They include the Main Karakoram Thrust, which separates the Hindukush-Karakoram belt from the Island Arc of Kohistan. In the south the Main Mantle Thrust separates the latter from Peshawar and Kashmir basins. The southern most is the Main Boundary Thrust, which separates the Lesser Himalaya from the Outer Himalaya. Panjal- and Murree Thrusts are the main tectonic planes that traverse the area. Besides, the Jhelum Tear Fault running in the N-S direction upto Muzzaffarabad and then E-W upto Baramulla separating the Peshawarfrom the Kashmir basin is the most active tectonic plane in the area.Though the area of downstream impact of the Uri-II is only spread over for about 15 km on the Indian side of the LOC but a population of about 7600 people is settled within the reach of dam break flooding. Besides, large population and agricultural and forestlands are at risk in case of dam failure beyond 10 km downstream reach in the PAK. Dam break would also adversely affect these areas. Therefore, monitoring of the RIS and seismic activity in the area is of utmost importance. The water level v/s flood wave has been worked out for project by one of us (GMB) which is given in figure below. Water Level v/s Flood Wave Level 1250 1250 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Down stream Locations Water level Level of Flood Wave Water Level (m) 1150 1100 1050 1000 950S. No 1 2 3 4 5 6 Distance from Dam site (d/s) Dam Axis 200m 700m 2950m 3110m 6100m S. No 7 8 9 10 11 Distance from Dam site (d/s) 8225m 10100m 11475m 12919m 14915m The area has experienced earthquakes of moderate to severe intensity in the past. The epicenters of major earthquakes in Kashmir are related with the mega- (more than 200 km) and intermediate lineaments (100-200 km). However, there is no documentation of seismic activity along the thrusts cutting across the project area. Therefore, a pl an of seismic surveillance of the area by establishing a network of seismic monitoring stations is proposed preferably jointly by India and Pakistan.There are evidences of neotectonic 21 Level of Flood Wave (m) 1200 1200 activity along the thrusts in the area; these thrusts should also be kept under the surveillance for such activities. The area is traversed by Panjal- and Murree Thrusts and Jhelum Fault and, falls in the transition zone between seismic zones IV and V. Besides, a number of lineaments transversely cutting across this thrust- and fault imbricate make the area more prone to neotectonic activity. These structural discontinuities coupled with joint systems and foliation in the rocks of the area makes it more prone disasters. Acknowledgements We wish to place on record sincerely gratitude due to Prof.Amitabh Mattoo, Vice-Chancellor, University of Jammu without whose inspiration, guidance and help the first outreach activity of the Centre for Disaster Studies and Research would not have been possible. We gratefully acknowledge the support extended by the BRO (Beacon) officials (Brigadier S. S. Dasaka, CE; Lt. Col. Jyant Bhamare, O/C 53 RCC and Maj. Y. C. Srivastava, O/C 109 RCC) during our stay in the area and conducting geological investigations. Thanks are due to Army Officials 3 Panjab and Dogra Regiment for their help in conducting the geological survey in the sensitive areas under their command. We gratefully acknowledge the help rendered by Qazi Ab.Hameed (younger brother of ViceChancellor, University of Kashmir), Qazi of the Karnah, whose company with us in the field for two days proved very fruitful in collecting the vital geological information from the area. We would like to place on record the co-operation extended to us by people in guiding us to the most affected areas in the region. We also received help from the J&K Police Department, Beacon and district authorities in the distribution of relief goods in the quake affected areas of Kar nah. References ABAG (2003). Modified Mercalli intensity scale from Richter, C. F. , 1958, Elementary Seismology , W. H. Freeman and Co. , San Francisco, pp. 135-149; 650-653. Bhat, G. M. , Pandita, S. K. , Singh Yudhbir, Singh Sham, Sharma Vinay and Bhat Gulshan (2005).Report on Quake hit Karnah and Uri Tehsils, Kashmir, pp. 1-22 Hussain, S. , Ahmed, N. , Khazai, B. , Ali, Q. , Ali, S. M. and Khan, M. (2006). The Kashmir earthquake of October 8, 2005: Impacts in Pakistan. EERI Special earthquake report 22 The Members of the Relief – come – Earthquake Investigation Team University of Jammu Sitting First Row left to right Kanchan Sharma, Sanjeev Sharma, Shahnawaz, Iftekhar Sitting Second Row left to right Sham Singh, Vinay Sharma, Rashid Choudhary, Yudhbir Singh Standing from left to right Vikrant Singh, Prof. Ashok Aima, Prof. V. K. Kapoor, Dr. G. M. Bhat, Dr. S. K. Pandita, Ajay Kumar, Gulshan Rashid Bhat 23

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The writer will highlight the importance of inter-professional working in palliative care, and provide evidence of how the government priorities have changed the boundaries of palliative care and how this has impacted on provision of palliative care services. The second half of the assignment aims to show analysis of both the role development of community specialist palliative care nurses and the recent changes, and provide evidence of how this role has impacted on society. The writer will aim to show evidence of how the role has been successful by providing patients perspectives of the service, and more importantly what improvements could be made in order to ensure the safety of positions with the introduction of the new commissioning process being implemented. The World Health Organisation (2009) defines palliative care as supporting patients and their families with physical, psychological, social and spiritual aspects of care during a physically and emotionally difficult journey of living with a non-curative condition. People’s awareness of palliative care has been linked to the rise of the modern hospice movement back in 1967, when a doctor by the name of Dame Cicely Saunders was responsible for opening a hospice in London called St Christopher’s. Cicely voiced concerns about the way death was dealt with in hospitals around this time and focused her attention on approaching death of cancer patients with more dignity and humanity (Kearney and Richardson 2006). Cicely went on to write several articles for nursing journals and her work was thought to be key to the development of the role of the clinical specialist palliative care nurse (Payne 2008). In the 1970’s the first Macmillan nurses were introduced. Macmillan nurses were generally employed by the National Health Service owever their posts were funded by Macmillan cancer support. The charitable service provider offered local health authorities the opportunity to enrol on a programme that would fund a Macmillan nursing post for a period of 3 years. Once the 3 year period ceased the health authority would become solely responsible for continuing the service out of their budgets (Lugton and Mcintyre 2005). Primarily the role of the Macmillan nurse back in the 1970â€⠄¢s was to provide direct hands-on care for patients whose illness had progressed to the terminal stage as well as support for their families. The role of the Macmillan nurses today tends to focus on meeting the specialist palliative care needs of patients. They provide support with how to manage difficult symptoms associated with the illness and various pain control methods as well as advice on numerous other things, as opposed to the general palliative care in the form of hands on nursing care. This type of palliative care is provided by generalist nurses within the community, such as district and community nurses. Their caseload not only consists of patients requiring palliative care but patients with various other nursing needs. Not all specialist palliative care nurses have the title Macmillan nurse, only those whose post were initially funded by Macmillan Cancer Support and then the NHS. Macmillan nurses are registered nurses who have at least 5 years experience in nursing. In addition they have experience in cancer or palliative care and further to their general nurse training have completed specialist courses, which enable them to have the title specialist nurse (Macmillan Cancer Support 2010). The work carried out by both Macmillan nurses and clinical specialist palliative care nurses differ only slightly, regardless of where they work (Cambridge University Hospitals NHS 2007). According to Seymour et al (2002) the role of the Macmillan nurse has evolved to that of the clinical nurse specialist. A clinical nurse specialist was defined by The Royal College of Nursing in 1988 as having gained through further training an advanced expertise and knowledge in a particular branch of nursing care. They further clarified the role as having responsibility for clinical practice, education, management and having knowledge of relevant research on their specialist area of nursing (Newbury et al 2008). Palliative care patient’s medical needs can change rapidly and may require the expertise of specialist palliative care nurses. Unlike generalist nurses, specialist palliative care nurse’s sole priorities lie with patients with palliative care needs. Referrals to specialist nurses are made when the needs of palliative care patients are becoming more complex and their symptoms harder to manage (Buckley 2008). However a review carried out by Ahmed (2004) suggests that there is lack of understanding of when and to whom referrals should be made to making them inconsistent. This lack of knowledge could be a barrier to the specialist palliative care nurses success. Another view could be that generalist nurses have been providing palliative care for many years, so why should they feel they need to hand over the care of the patients? The Royal College of Nursing (2002) outlined essential skills that were thought to be necessary to the role of specialist palliative care nurses. These were effective communication and the ability to deal with people’s grief, loss and bereavement. Lugton and Mcintyre (2005) suggest that communication is the key attribute to the role of the specialist palliative care nurse however Penson (2000) argues that comfort is the key attribute. Community specialist palliative care nurses are just one group of professionals that make up the multi-disciplinary team providing patients with palliative care. Their work involves close contact and communication with patient’s general practitioners, district and community nurses as well as community matrons. Community matrons are a relatively new role development. They were introduced in 2006 and the role was thought to be developed as a result of the population of the United Kingdom living longer and living with long term conditions. Their work involves looking at the patient holistically and supporting them whilst addressing the complex needs associated with their long term condition. (Sines et al 2009). Supporting patients to manage their symptoms and aiding them to live independently was one of the main proposals set out in the National Service Framework for long term conditions (Department of Health 2005). Prior to the introduction of community specialist palliative care nurses palliative care for the past 150 years or more was provided by district and community nurses in the home environment (Pellett 2009). According to Meehan (2010) within the United Kingdom numbers of qualified district nurses working in the community has fallen dramatically. This questions whether the introduction of the specialist nurses such as community specialist palliative care nurses and community matrons has contributed to these numbers falling. With shortages of district nurses patients care will be impacted upon. Terminally ill patients who have agreed their preferred place of care may have this taken away if problems arise in their condition and they eventually end up having to be admitted to the hospital or hospice unnecessarily (National Audit Office 2008). This in turn will have an impact on the current trends at the heart of the government’s priorities which following the NHS next stage review looked at increasing areas of healthcare into the community and reducing hospital admissions in an attempt to cut NHS costs (Darzi 2008). When the government announced their financial cuts to the NHS back in 2007 specialist nurse posts came under attack. Specialist services as opposed to generalist services are expensive and specialist nurses are in a higher pay band making them more vulnerable to losing their positions in spending cuts (Dean 2010). This questions the government’s views on specialist nurses. Are they seen as additional extras that could cut back in future spending cuts, in turn having an effect on patient care? Although the role of the specialist palliative care nurse is not a recent development to community nursing their role has changed over the last five years. This is in response to the needs of the population and government priorities. Demographic changes are a feature that have impacted on the work of the community specialist palliative care nurse. According to Sines et al (2009) the United Kingdom’s population is set to increase by 7. 2% by the year 2016. The central reasons for this increase are due to the fact that individuals are living longer and migration. Gomes and Higginson (2008) suggest that by the year 2030, 22% of the United Kingdom and Wales will be aged 65 years and over, with two thirds of people being over 75 years old when they die. Older age inevitably increases the certainty that people are more likely to suffer from non communicable diseases as well as cancers and the presence of co-morbidities (Payne 2008). The needs of the aging population will mean that community specialist palliative care nurses will be called upon to deal with increasing demand on palliative care services. As well as the population of the United Kingdom increasing so has patient’s expectations of the NHS, health and social care due to the input from the media. The introduction of the white paper: Our Health, Our care, Our say: a new direction for community services (2006) set out by the Department of Health was thought to be responsible for these expectations. People up and down the country were asked what they liked and wanted from their local health and social care services. People responded with enthusiasm and the government listened and promised to give the public more choices, providing better information about their health and how to stay healthy. The paper gave people more power and influence over the type and recommended standard of service they were to be offered locally. People expect to be treated more as partners and equals and expect choices and options available to them (Department of Health 2006). The provision of palliative care has also changed, historically provision of palliative care focused on supporting patients with cancer however over the last few years moves have taken place to expand the scope of specialist palliative care in order to attend to needs of patients with non-malignant diseases (Small et al 2000). In 1997 the department of health released a white paper: The New NHS: Modern and Dependable which suggested that the Calman-Hine Report: A policy Framework for Commissioning Cancer Services (1995), which examined and proposed a restructuring to cancer services in the United Kingdom could extend its services even further to include people with non-malignant diseases (Department of Health 1997). Amongst the Calman-Hine report were recommendations that everyone with cancer should have equal access to high levels of expertise regardless of where they reside in the country, and a distinction between palliative and terminal care meaning that patients have access to services earlier on in their illness (Calman Hine 1995). Expanding specialist palliative care to patients with non-malignant diseases has had a significant impact on the work load of specialist palliative care services by stretching resources to the limit. Although emphasis has been on providing all patients with life limiting diseases palliative care, is this actually being done? According to Watson et al (2005) specialist palliative care services are not readily available to patients with non-malignant diseases as they are to cancer patients. There is also a lack of support for patients from the voluntary services such as Marie Curie. In order to assist nurses to deliver evidence based practise initiatives such as care pathways were developed. These developments were put in place following the introduction of the white paper: A First Class Service-Quality in the new NHS back in 1998. The white paper was proposed by the government and aimed at producing a strategy to improve the delivery of health care. Three national initiatives which are important parts to the palliative care approach are the Gold Standard Framework, Preferred Place of Care document and the Liverpool Care Pathway. The Gold Standard Framework is a programme of assessment and care. Its aims are to improve quality of life for both patients and their families in the last year of a patient’s life. The Liverpool Care Pathway was developed 10 years ago and is a tool to assist health care professionals care for those who are in their last few days of living. The third initiative preferred place of care document is aimed at putting the patient at the centre of care, giving patients the choice regarding where they would like to be cared for and where they choose to die (Ellershaw Wilkinson 2003). The preferred place of care document is important to the changing role of the community specialist palliative care nurse. The End of Life Strategy for England delivered by the Department of Health (2008) set out a comprehensive plan to improve end of life care for all dying people. This is the first strategy that does not solely concentrate on improving end of life care for people with cancer. Following on from the government’s proposals in 2003 one of the key components of the strategy is giving people the choice about where they choose to die. Given the choice many people would prefer to die in their own homes with adequate support from professionals, however this is not always possible (Thomas 2004). At the beginning of the 20th century the majority of people who were terminally ill died in their own homes whereas today statistics show that 66% of people die in hospitals and 19% at home (Ellershaw Wilkinson 2003). Some of the reasons why this is not possible are due to inadequate symptom control, which is an important role of the community specialist palliative care nurses. Community specialist palliative care nurses generally work normal working hours so what provision is there for patients outside of these hours and who covers the work of the nurses when their working day is complete? Palliative patient’s complex needs require swift responses from palliative specialists when it comes to out of hours services. If patients were receiving 24 hour care unnecessary emergency hospital admissions and suffering of patients would be reduced. A number of community specialist palliative care nurses within certain trusts have gone onto complete nurse prescribing courses. They have the ability to prescribe from the extended formulary making them independent prescribers. For specialist nurses’ having this expanded nursing skill means they have the opportunity to work more autonomously. As one of the key roles of the community specialist palliative care nurse is managing difficult symptoms having the ability to prescribe immediately and appropriately helps promote a service that will reduce patients and carers distress (Mula and Ware 2003). This further acknowledges the importance of specialist nurses working out of normal working hours. The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (2004) suggests that in order to provide good end of life care patients need to have access to specialist palliative care 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. However a report by the National Audit office (2008) reported that just over half of local health authorities provided such care. The last government promised that all cancer patients would have access to specialist nurses trained in their condition (Rose 2010) however generally this too is only available during normal working hours according to Macmillan Cancer Support (2010) meaning that it is then acceptable for such care to be provided by generalist nurses.

Study on Monetary Policy and the Stock Market

Study on Monetary Policy and the Stock Market Monetary policy is the regulation of the interest rate and money supply of a country by its Central Bank or Federal Reserve in other to achieve the major economic goals which include price stability, full employment, economic growth etc.  Ã‚   The stock market on the other hand is often considered a primary indicator of a countrys economic strength and development as it is a major source of savings and income for most individuals. History has shown that the economy of any country reacts strongly to movements in stock prices and is replete with examples in which large swings in stock, housing and exchange rate markets coincided with prolonged booms and busts (Cecchetti, Genberg, Lipsky and Wadhwani, 2000). Recent happenings even confirm this as the latest economic recession was preceded by a crash in the stock market. As a result of the relationship between the stock market and the economy, it is very important to the Central bank that the stock market performs well as bad performance can seriously disrupt the economy. This is because the stock market serves as a primary source of income and retirement savings to many and movements in stock prices can have a major effect on the economy as it influences real activities such as consumption, investments, savings etc While some economists say that monetary policy decisions depend on stock price movements, some others believe that stock price movements depend on monetary policy decisions. In this paper, we analyze both sides of the coin by looking at how stock markets react to monetary policy and how monetary policy reacts to movements in stock markets. This research work is aimed at finding out which granger causes which using the Granger Causality test. We will also analyze the relationship between both interest rates and monetary policy and that between money supply and monetary policy. In section II, a thorough review of the relevant literature of the topic is carried out as we try to understand more about the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market and the effects of both components (money supply and interest rates) of monetary policy 0n the stock market. In the next section, we describe the variables and data set used in the study and the empirical model is developed. Results are presented and discussed in the next section. We conclude the paper in section V and suggestions for further studies are pointed out and policy implications are considered. REVIEW OF RELEVANT LITERATURE Monetary policy is one of the most effective tools a Central Bank has at its disposal (Maskay, 2007) and is used to achieve the macroeconomic goals set by the government. This is done by regulating the two components of monetary policy which are interest rates and money supply to maintain balance in the economy. The stock market is an important indicator of the wellbeing of the economy as stock prices reflect whether the economy is doing well or not. Movements in stock prices have a significant impact on the macroeconomy and are therefore likely to be an important factor in the determination of monetary policy (Rigobon and Sack, 2001). The stock market is a financial market where equities are bought and sold either as an IPO (Initial Public Offer) in the primary market or exchange of existing shares between interested parties in the secondary market. Although stocks are claims on real assets and researchers have found considerable evidence that monetary policy can affect real stock p rices in the short run (e.g Bernanke and Kuttner, 2005), monetary neutrality implies that monetary policy should not affect real stock prices in the long run (Bordo, Dueker and Wheelock, 2007). To understand the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market, we must first understand what monetary policy is. Lamont, Polk and Saa-Requejo (2001), Perez-Quiros and Timmerman (2000) among others use change in market interest rates or official rates as their measures of monetary policy. This measure of monetary policy, however, coincides with changes in business cycle conditions and other relevant economic variables. Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (1994) extracted monetary policy as the orthogonalized innovations from VAR models proposed by Campbell (1991) and Campbell and Ammer (1993). Research methodology based on this has shown that the response of US stocks returns to monetary policy shocks based on federal fun rates show that returns of large firms react less strongly than those of small firms (Thorbecke, 1997), that the overall policy for stock returns is quite low ( Patelis, 1997) and that international stock markets react to both to changes in their local mon etary policies and that of the United states ( Conover, Jensen and Johnson ( 1999). Monetary policy shocks that are extracted from structural VAR models or from changes in interest rates using monthly or quarterly data are likely to subject to the endogeneity problem i.e they are unlikely to be purely exogenous ( Ehrmann and Fratzscher, 2004). Another VAR-based method was used by Goto ad Valkanov (2000) to focus on the covariance between inflation and stock returns while Boyd, Jagan and Hu (2001) considered the linkages between policy and stock prices. Their analysis did not focus directly on monetary policy; rather it focused on markets response to employment news (Bernanke and Kuttner, 2005). In their own research paper, Ehrmann and Fratzscher (2004) find that SP 500 shows a strong effect of monetary policy on equity returns, that the effect of monetary policy is stronger in an environment of increased market uncertainty, that that negative surprises ( i.e monetary policy has tightened less and loosened more than expected) has larger effects on the stock market than positive surprises, that small firms are react more to policy shocks than large firms, that firms with low cash flows are affected more by US monetary shocks and that firms with poor ratings are more prone to monetary policy shocks than those with good ratings. They find that firms react more strongly when no change had been expected, when there is a directional change in the monetary policy stance and during periods of high market uncertainty. There has also been cross-sectional dimensions of the effect of monetary policy on the stock markets in literature though few. Hayo and Uhlenbruck (2000), Dedola and Lippi (2000), Peersman and Smets ( 2002), Ganley and Salmon (1997) etc are some economists who have analyzed this and overall, their findings show that the stock prices of firms in cyclical industries, capital-intensive industries and industries that are relatively open to trade are affected more strongly by monetary policy shocks (Ehrmann and Fratzscher, 2004). According to Bernanke and Kuttner (2005), changes in monetary policy are transmitted through the stock market via changes in the values of private portfolios (â‚ ¬Ã…“wealth effectâ‚ ¬?), changes in the cost of capital and by other mechanisms. In their paper, they analyzed the stock markets response to policy actions both in the aggregate and at the level of industrys portfolios and they also tried to understand the reasons for the stock markets response. Their findings show that monetary policy is, for the most part, not directly attributable to policys effects on the real interest rate instead it seems to come either through its effects on expected future excess returns or expected future dividends. While economists commonly associate restrictive/expansive monetary policy with higher/lower levels of economic activity, financial economists discuss various reasons why changes in the discount rate affect stock returns. (Durham, 2000) Changes in the discount rate affect the expectations of corporate profitability ( Waud, 1970) and discrete policy rate changes influence forecasts of market determined interest rates and the equity cost of capital ( Durham, 2000). Modigliani (1971), suggests that a decrease in interest rates boosts stock prices and therefore financial wealth and lifetime resources, which in turn raises consumption through the welfare effect. Mishkin (1977) on the other hand suggests that lower interest rates increase stock prices and therefore decrease the likelihood of financial distress, leading to increased consumer durable expenditure as consumer liquidity concerns abate (Durham, 2000). Tobins q is the equity market value of a firm divided by its book value. It can also be defined as the ratio of the market value of a firms existing shares to the replacement cost of the firms physical assets. Higher stock prices reduce the yield on stocks and reduce the cost of financing investment spending through equity issuance (Bosworth, 1975). Tobins q explains on e of the mechanisms through which movements in stock prices can affect the economy: the wealth channel. The other channels of monetary policy transmission include; the interest rate channel and the exchange rate channel. The wealth channel has the investment effect, wealth effects and balance sheet effects (www.oenb.at/en). Bernanke and Blinder (1992) and Kashyap, Stein and Wilcox (1993) show that a tightening of monetary policy has a very strong impact on firms that highly depend on banks loans to financing their investments as banks reduce their overall supply of credit. Deteriorating market conditions affect firms by also weakening their balance sheets as the present value of collateral falls with rising interest rates and that this effect can be stronger for some firms than for others (Bernanke and Gertler 1989, Kiyotaki and Moore 1997). These two arguments are based on information asymmetries as firms for which more information is publicly available may find it easier to collect loans when credit conditions become tighter (Gertler and Hubbard 1988, Gertler and Gilchrist 1994).Stock returns of small firms generally respond more to monetary policy than those of large firms ( Thorbecke 1997, Perez-Quiros and Timmermmann 2000). Some economists (Sprinkle (1964), Homa and Jaffee (1971), Hamburger and Kochin (1972)) in the early 1970,s alleged that past data on money supply could be used to predict future stock returns. These finding where not in line with the efficient market hypothesis which states that all available information should be reflected in current prices (Fama, 1970) meaning that anticipated information should not have any effect on current stock prices. Most economists believe that stock prices react differently to the anticipated and unanticipated effects of monetary policy ( Maskay, 2007). The Keynesian economists argue that there is a negative relationship between stock prices and money supply whereas real activity theorists argue that the relationship between the two variables is positive (Sellin, 2001). The Keynesian economists believe that a change in money supply or interest rates will affect stock prices only if the change in the money supply alters expectations about future monetary policy while the real activity economists argue that increase in money supply means that money demand is increasing in anticipation of increase in economic activity (Maskay, 2007). Another factor discussed by Sellin (2001) is the risk premium hypothesis proposed by Cornell i.e higher money supply indicates higher money demand and higher money demand suggests increased risk which leads investors to demand higher risk premiums for holding stocks making them less attractive. The real activity and risk premium hypothesis is combined by Bernanke and Kuttner (2005) who argue that the price of a stock is a function of the present value of future returns and the perceived risk in holding the stock. While advocates of the efficient market hypothesis hold that all available information is included in the price of a stock, the opponents argue otherwise and that stock prices can also be affected by unanticipated changes in money (Corrado and Jordan, 2005). The effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in money supply on stock prices was analyzed by Sorensen (1982) who found out that unanticipated changes in money supply have a larger impact on the stock market than anticipated changes. Bernanke and Kuttner (2005) on the other hand analyze the impact of announced and unannounced changes in the federal funds rate and find that the stock market reacts more to unannounced changes than to announced changes in the federal funds rate which is also in line with the efficient market hypothesis. Studies by Husain and Mahmood (1999) have opposing results. They analyze the relationship between the money supply and changes (long run and short run) in stock market prices and find that chan ges in money supply causes changes in stock prices both in the short run and long run implying that the efficient market hypothesis does not always hold. Maskay(2007) analyzes the relationship between money supply and stock prices. He also seperates money supply into anticipated and unanticipated components and adds consumer confidence, real GDP and unemployment rate as control variables. The result from his analysis shows that there is a positive relationship between changes in the money supply and the stock prices thereby supporting the real activity the theorists. The result from his analysis on the effect of anticipated and unanticipated change in the money supply on stock market prices shows that anticipated changes in money supply matters more than unanticipated changes. This supports the critics of the efficient market hypothesis. According to Cecchetti, et al. (2000), macroeconomic performance can be improved if the central bank increases the short-term nominal interest rate in response to temporary â‚ ¬Ã…“bubble shocksâ‚ ¬? that raise the stock price index above the value implied by economic fundamentals. On the other hand, Bernanke and Gertler (2001) assumed in their research that the Central Bank cannot tell whether an increase in stock prices is driven by a bubble shock or a fundamental shock. This study will analyze both exogenous and endogenous components of the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market i.e the effect of monetary policy on the stock market and the the effect if any of the stock market on monetary policy decisions. This particular analysis will be done using the federal funds rate as a representative of monetary policy. We also follow the methodology used by Maskay (2007) closely as we try to find the effect of money supply on the stock market. Although Maskay used M2 as a measure of money supply, this study will separate money supply into M1 and M2 and analyze their relationship with the stock prices. Following from the theory and review of literature, this paper is aimed at answering the following questions: How do movements in the stock market affect monetary policy decisions on federal funds rates? How does monetary policy affect stock market prices? Do stock market prices react differently to the M1 and M2 components of money supply? RESEARCH METHODOLOGY The effect of stock market prices on monetary policy. In this section, I test for the relationship between monetary policy and stock prices using the Taylor rule. The Taylor rule is a monetary policy rule that stipulates how much the central bank would or should change the nominal interest rate in response to the divergence of actual inflation rates from target inflation rates and of actual GDP from potential GDP. The rule is written as; it = r*t + ÃŽÂ ² (à Ã¢â€š ¬ tâ‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" à Ã¢â€š ¬*t) +ÃŽÂ ³ (yt Ã…Â ·t)â‚ ¬Ã‚ ¦Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦.. (1) Where; it = target short-term nominal interest rate. r*t = assumed equilibrium real interest rate. à Ã¢â€š ¬t = the observed rate of inflation. à Ã¢â€š ¬*t = the desired rate of inflation. yt = the logarithm of real GDP. Ã…Â ·t = the potential output. But, to analyze the behavior of monetary policy, the following regression equation is estimated; it = ÃŽÂ ± + ÃŽÂ ²Et(à Ã¢â€š ¬ t+iâ‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" à Ã¢â€š ¬*t+i) +ÃŽÂ ³Et (yt+i+ Ã…Â ·t+i)+ÃŽÂ µt â‚ ¬Ã‚ ¦Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦..(2) Where: Et = the expected value conditional to information available at the time. A good conduct of monetary policy should have ÃŽÂ ² and ÃŽÂ ± each equal to 0.5 as suggested by John Taylor. To conduct our study, we use the following equation; it = ÃŽÂ ± + ÃŽÂ ²Et(à Ã¢â€š ¬ t+iâ‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" à Ã¢â€š ¬*t+i) +ÃŽÂ ³Et (yt+i+ Ã…Â ·t+i)+ˆ‘Π´k à Ã¢â‚¬ ¦t-k + ÃŽÂ µt ..(3) Because the monetary authorities target variables other than inflation and output deviations from the target (asset prices in this case) thereby making equation (2) mis-specified. A standard Taylor rule is well specified when the monetary authorities target only inflation and output deviations from the target. The addition to this variable is the lagged change in asset prices which is added in order to determine the relationship between monetary policy and stock prices. The data for the CPI (Consumer Price Index), real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and the federal funds rate are obtained from the IMF Washington website while the data for SP 500 Index are obtained from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis website; www.federalreserve.gov. The effect of monetary policy on stock market prices. In this section, we test whether movements in stock prices are sometimes dependent on monetary policy. This test is carried out by regressing the actual change in federal funds rates upon the SP 500 index. We us the following simple model for this purpose: SP500 = ÃŽÂ ²1 + ÃŽÂ ²2*actual change in federal funs rate + ÃŽÂ ²3*real GDP + ÃŽÂ ²4* unemployment rate. Real GDP and Unemployment rate are added as control variables. The data for real GDP is obtained from IMF, Washington while the data for unemployment rates in obtained from www.federalreserves.gov. We add GDP because it is an important determinant of the stock prices as most industries react to changes in the economy and do well as the economy does well and vice versa i.e they are procyclical in nature. When the GDP is low, the stock prices generally tend to be low, as the companys performance would be worse than before. A direct, positive relationship is expected between stock prices and the GDP. Unemployment rate is also used as a control variable in this model because it is one of the major factors that determines the demand for stocks thereby either driving the stock prices up or down. When the unemployment rate is high, demand for stock reduces as less people can afford to buy them and this subsequently drives down stock prices and vice versa. The unemployment rate is also a proxy for for overall aggregate demand in the economy ( Maskay, 2007) and when it is low, aggregate demand is high. We expect an inverse relationship between the unemployment rates and stock prices. The effect of M1 and M2 components of money supply on stock prices. In this section, we test the relationship between monetary policy and stock prices from the money supply angle of monetary policy. We use the M1 and M2 components of money supply for this analysis. This is done by first testing the relationship between the percentage change in M1 and the stock prices and then testing the relationship between M2 and the stock market. The simple empirical model used for this test is; SP500 = ÃŽÂ ²1 + ÃŽÂ ²2*%ˆâ€  M1 + ÃŽÂ ²3*Real GDP + ÃŽÂ ²4*Unemployment rateâ‚ ¬Ã‚ ¦Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦.. (1) SP500 = ÃŽÂ ² 1+ ÃŽÂ ²2*%ˆâ€  M2 + ÃŽÂ ²*3Real GDP + ÃŽÂ ²4*Unemployment rateâ‚ ¬Ã‚ ¦Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦.. (2) Unemployment rate and real GDP are also used here as control variables for the same reasons given above. The data on percentage change in M1 and M2 were obtained from Federal Reserve Economic Data from the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. We were able to get the monthly data of M1 and M2 and then got the quarterly averages to produce the quarterly data. DATA DESCRIPTION In this section, we define and describe the various data used in this study. We used quarterly data from 1990 to 2009. The variables used in this analysis include; The Federal Funds Rate; The federal funds rate is a monetary policy tool used by the Central Bank/Federal reserve of the country to regulate the economy. Economists believe it has an inverse relationship with stock prices as because when there is an upward movement in stock prices above the desirable level, the federal reserve increases (contractionary) the federal funds rate . This leads to a decrease in the amount of money demanded by individuals thereby causing a lower demand for stocks and pushing down stock prices. We obtained data on the federal funds rate from the website of the federal reserve bank of Louisiana. 2. The Consumer Price Index; A consumer price index (CPI) is an index that estimates the average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households. It is used in our study to calculate inflation. We do this using the eviews software (100 ÃÆ'— (cpi â‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" cpi ( -4)). We obtained the quarterly data on CPI from the website of the International Monetary fund in washington. The CPI has an inverse relationship with monetary policy actions. 3. Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP); This can be defined as a measure which adjusts for inflation and reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given year, expressed in base year prices. Real GDP provides a more accurate figure as it accounts for changes in the price level. The quarterly data on Real GDP is obtained from the website of the International Monetary Fund, Washington. 4. SP 500; It is a capital weighted index of the prices of 500 large-cap common stocks actively traded in the United States. It is believed to have an inverse relationship with monetary policy as an expansionary (interest rate reduction) monetary policy leads to an upward movement of the sp500 index. The quarterly data for the sp500 is obtained from the federal reserve bank of Louisiana. 5. Unemployment Rate; The unemployment rate is used as one of the control variables. It is an important indicator of the wellbeing of an economy. The lower the unemployment rate, the higher the aggregate demand for stock thereby pushing up stock prices. The quarterly data on unemployment rate is obtained from the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of Louisiana. We get the quarterly data by finding quarterly averages from the monthly data provided. 6. Monetary aggregates â‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" M1 and M2; M1 is a monetary aggregate and it includes the transaction deposits of banks and cash in circulation and all other money equivalents that are easily convertible into cash while includes M1 plus short-term deposits in banks and 24-hour money market funds. Money supply has a positive relationship with stock prices because the higher the money supply, the higher the demand for stock which eventually increases stock prices. We split money supply into M1 and M2 to find out if they have the same relationship with stock prices. The quarterly data on percentage change in monetary aggregates is obtained from the website of the federal reserve bank of Louisiana. We also had to calculate the quarterly averages of the monthly data given. DATA ANALYSIS Model 1: The Taylor rule it = r*t + ÃŽÂ ² (à Ã¢â€š ¬ tâ‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" à Ã¢â€š ¬*t) +ÃŽÂ ³ (yt â‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" Ã…Â ·t)+ ÃŽÂ µt Dependent Variable: FED_FUNDS_RATE Method: Least Squares Date: 07/05/10 Time: 20:19 Sample(adjusted): 1991:1 2009:4 Included observations: 76 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 3.615513 1.220783 2.961634 0.0041 INFLATION 0.684264 0.156212 4.380348 0.0000 OUTPUT_GAP -1.42E-06 9.83E-07 -1.442803 0.1534 R-squared 0.249642 Mean dependent var 3.860658 Adjusted R-squared 0.229085 S.D. dependent var 1.686064 S.E. of regression 1.480394 Akaike info criterion 3.661167 Sum squared resid 159.9844 Schwarz criterion 3.753170 Log likelihood -136.1244 F-statistic 12.14348 Durbin-Watson stat 0.181830 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000028 The estimation results are; it =3.62 + 0.68(à Ã¢â€š ¬ tâ‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" à Ã¢â€š ¬*t) â‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 1.42 (yt â‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" Ã…Â ·t) The coefficient associated to inflation is positive, 0.68, but is statistically significant with a p-value of 0.00. The coefficient associated with the output gap is negative (-1.42) and statistically significant. The estimated stabilizing rate of interest (c) is positive (3.61) and statistically significant. An R-squared of 0.25 means that we are only able to explain about 25% of the variability in the interest rate. The augmented taylor rule model: it = ÃŽÂ ± + ÃŽÂ ²Et(à Ã¢â€š ¬ t+iâ‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" à Ã¢â€š ¬*t+i) +ÃŽÂ ³Et (yt+i+ Ã…Â ·t+i)+ˆ‘Π´1 à Ã¢â‚¬ ¦t-1 + ÃŽÂ µt one lag Dependent Variable: FED_FUNDS_RATE Method: Least Squares Date: 07/05/10 Time: 21:30 Sample(adjusted): 1991:3 2009:4 Included observations: 74 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 8.298961 1.280893 6.479044 0.0000 INFLATION_F 0.548999 0.181198 3.029825 0.0034 OUTPUT_GAP_F -9.10E-06 1.51E-06 -6.041926 0.0000 S(-1) 4.24E-05 7.35E-06 5.775767 0.0000 R-squared 0.442430 Mean dependent var 3.809595 Adjusted R-squared 0.418534 S.D. dependent var 1.678852 S.E. of regression 1.280190 Akaike info criterion 3.384432 Sum squared resid 114.7220 Schwarz criterion 3.508976 Log likelihood -121.2240 F-statistic 18.51494 Durbin-Watson stat 0.214690 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Interpretation: The estimated regression is; it = 8.30 + 0.55Et(à Ã¢â€š ¬ t+iâ‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" à Ã¢â€š ¬*t+i) -9.10Et (yt+i+ Ã…Â ·t+i)+4.24ˆ‘à Ã¢â‚¬ ¦t-k The coefficient associated to expected inflation is positive (0.55) but is statistically significant because it has a p-value of 0f 0.003, the coefficient associated with expected output gap is negative (-9.10) and is statistically significant (p-value = 0.000). The coefficient associated with the change in asset prices (lagged by 1 for better estimation) which is denoted by S (-1) is negative and it is statistically significant therefore we reject the null hypothesis. The measure of goodness of fit (R-square) is 0.44 meaning that we are able to explain about 44% of the variability in the interest rate Our model consistently overestimates the actual interest rate and the residuals do not seem to be independently and identically distributed. We therefore conduct some tests which include: 1. The Jacque-Bera test: This is a statistic that measures the difference of the skewness and kurtosis of the series with those from a normal distribution. By simply looking at the histogram, we can see that the distribution is roughly normal and the jarque-bera statistic of 0.58 shows that it is not statistically significant and we should accept the null hypothesis. The white test: This is used to test whether the errors are heteroskedastic or not. In the presence of heteroskedasticity, OLS estimates are consistent but efficient. White Heteroskedasticity Test: F-statistic 3.846209 Probability 0.000621 Obs*R-squared 25.97528 Probability 0.002062 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 07/06/10 Time: 00:41 Sample: 1991:3 2009:4 Included observations: 74 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -35.28961 24.46199 -1.442630 0.1540 INFLATION_F -5.419657 3.008210 -1.801622 0.0763 INFLATION_F^2 0.307231 0.200286 1.533961 0.1300 INFLATION_F*OUTPUT_GAP_F 5.95E-06 2.83E-06 2.105586 0.0392 INFLATION_F*S(-1) -2.78E-05 1.73E-05 -1.603361 0.1138 OUTPUT_GAP_F 9.90E-05 5.34E-05 1.852558 0.0686 OUTPUT_GAP_F^2 -6.19E-11 2.74E-11 -2.257288 0.0274 OUTPUT_GAP_F*S(-1) 3.35E-10 1.43E-10 2.337290 0.0226 S(-1) -0.000309 0.000140 -2.205282 0.0310 S(-1)^2 -7.97E-11 5.33E-10 -0.149679 0.8815 R-squared 0.351017 Mean dependent var 1.550298 Adjusted R-squared 0.259754 S.D. dependent var 1.968439 S.E. of regression 1.693596 Akaike info criterion 4.016674 Sum squared resid 183.5692 Schwarz criterion 4.328034 Log likelihood -138.6169 F-statistic 3.846209 Durbin-Watson stat 0.580160 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000621 According to the two test statistics involved in the regression result, we can say that the distribution is statistically significant so we can reject null hypothesis. The Durbin-Watson test: This is used to test for serial correlation. Autocorrelated residuals means that OLS is no longer best, linear, unbiased estimators and that the standard errors computed using the OLS formula are not correct. The Durbin-Watson statistic of 0.214690 shows that there is positive serial correlation as DW Model 2: SP500 = ÃŽÂ ²1 + ÃŽÂ ²2 federal funds rate + ÃŽÂ ²3real GDP + ÃŽÂ ²4unemployment rate. The aim of this model is to determine if the federal funds rate has any impact on the stock market. Real GDP and unemployment rate are used as control variables for reasons given in the research methodology. Dependent Variable: SP500 Method: Least Squares Date: 07/06/10 Time: 01:38 Sample: 1990:1 2009:4 Included observations: 80 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -115.7008 222.2313 -0.520632 0.6041 FED_FUNDS_RATE 0.990301 12.96436 0.076386 0.9393 REAL_GDP01 0.159538 0.010327 15.44916 0.0000 UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE -119.5674 17.42177 -6.863101 0.0000 R-squared 0.872734 Mean dependent var 924.0339 Adjusted R-squared 0.867710 S.D. dependent var 378.2205 S.E. of regression 137.5651 Akaike info criterion 12.73478 Sum squared resid 1438237. Schwarz criterion 12.85388 Log likelihood -505.3912 F-statistic 173.7244 Durbin-Watson stat 0.350064 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Interpretation: The estimated regression is: sp500 =-115.78 + 0.99*actual change in federal funds rate + 0.16*real GDP â‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 119.57* unemployment rate. The coefficient associated with the federal funds rate is negative and is not statistically significant. The coefficient associated with the real GDP is positive and is statistically significant while the coefficient associate